12.27.2008

Wait For The Wintertime

The following is an assorted list of things I have yet to do:

  • Make any one of the three music related podcasts I have intended to make
  • Watch the Doctor Who Christmas Special
  • Watch any holiday related movie
  • Bake cookies
  • Remove the Wii I received as a Christmas gift from its packaging
  • Play in the snow

11.25.2008

Teacher says, every time Sarah Palin gives an interview, a turkey gets its wings--and by gets its wings, I mean, is slaughtered.

11.20.2008

I happened upon this website during a google search. It gives you some useless information about your name.

For example:

"Your 'Numerology' number is 7. If it wasn't bulls**t, it would mean that you are spiritual, eccentric, and a bit of a loner. Introspective and analytical, you think deeply and prefer seclusion."


Yup, complete bulls**t.

Also, I've been doing some cleaning. And although I realize I haven't mopped in some time, I find it hard to believe that a floor could be that dirty. I mean, it's not like I have dogs, or kids, or a marauding army of Mongolians on horseback traipsing through my kitchen. Well, anyway, it's clean now; or cleanish.

10.14.2008

Recently, I heard someone say, "Education is not a solipsistic affair." I thought that was a pretty bold statement coming from a man who doesn't exist.

10.09.2008

Ars Economica

I regret that I have not been writing about the economy. I don't mean over the last few weeks; I mean over the years. So, below is a brief recap of my economic views over the last decade. There's no way to prove that I actually had these ideas at the time; you just kind of have to take my word for it.

Late 90s
Situation:
The so-called "dot-com" boom fuels economic growth and a federal budget surplus.

Analysis:
GDP growth is a result of increased productivity through the application of new technology (B2B). Productivity gains will plateau causing growth to slow.

Proposal:
Encourage investment in alternative energy (long term) and green technologies (short term) which will create new technologies and productivity growth. (I used to call this idea "Sustainable Growth"™ an homage to the concept of "sustainable development.")

What Actually Happened:
Irrational exuberance came to an end when overvalued stocks began to fall. Consolidation in telecommunications failed to live up to the hype.

Early Aughts
Situation:
Recession. George W. Bush takes office with a federal budget surplus.

Analysis:
Economic growth is increasingly tied to consumption. The end of the "dot-com" boom causes job losses in technology and service industries. Overall consumer spending is compromised.

Proposal:

Use federal money to invest in national infrastructure. Repair roads, bridges, build schools. (And high speed rail?!) Creates short term (5-10 year) boom in construction while addressing long term infrastructure needs. Creates jobs which prop up consumption. (This is basically the opposite of trickle down economics. Give money to those who spend the largest percentage of their income in order to create growth. Yeah, I'm a socialist.)

What Actually Happened:
Massive tax cuts that make the income tax less progressive. Deficits. 9/11. Federal bailout for airline industry. War in Afghanistan.

Mid Aughts
Situation:
Consumer spending and tax revenue as a percentage of GDP rebound. Recession ends. War with Iraq. Deficits increase.
I was wearing an onion on my belt, which was the style at the time.

Analysis:
Decline in the value of the dollar decreases trade deficit. Consumer spending is propped up by housing prices as consumers use their homes as ATM machines. A housing glut will cause home prices to fall and consumer spending will be significantly impacted.

Proposal:
Um... well, I can't really tell developers to stop building homes no one needs and condos that are going to be half empty when completed. Also, it looks like we're stuck with a budget deficit and a costly war. All I can suggest is try to grow out of the deficit. See: Proposal for Late 90s.

Today
Situation:
Fucked.

Analysis:
It may be much worse than I thought.
Our economy has, for some time, run on consumption. Consumption has run on borrowed money. If nobody can borrow money anymore, we're screwed. The bailout may not even work. At this point there may be so much money in worthless investments that even buying mortgage backed securities at $0.80 on the dollar may not provide enough capital to save the banking industry. What I can't tell is if the banks that seem to have enough capital to snatch up the ruins of Wachovia, Washington Mutual, et.al. are strong enough to survive. If they are, then we'll experience a temporary credit freeze and recession, but we'll live to borrow another day. If they aren't and $700 billion isn't enough to save them, the government might not be able to borrow enough money to compensate. That's when we're toast.

Proposal:
End the war. Give up the empire. Cut defense spending by at least 50%. Even if we make it through this crisis, we're on an unsustainable path. Cross your fingers, toes, etc. and pray to your lord and savior Adam Smith.

9.30.2008

I ate two fortune cookies:

"You will soon be crossing great waters on a fun vacation."

That's unlikely.

"You are a natural leader."

Not according to my scouting report.

I've done about a 90º rotation on the bailout plan. I'm now about 60º away from thinking it's not necessary at all. It's become clear to me now, that the approach to the problem that Paulson wants to take is backwards. However, it is in line with the customary practice of moving money from public hands into private hands.

This is the 2nd best explanation of the mortgage crisis that I've seen.

9.28.2008

Untitled

Being in danger of setting an all-time record for fewest blog posts in a month, I've decided to release this unfinished product from the discontinued acb a cappella.

Untitled

Note: There's 20 seconds of dead air at the beginning.

9.02.2008

Hey kids,



Unless, you're skipping school to demand a better education
.

In that case, you can keep as many children as you can find out of school their first week in order to sanction an administrative body which has no direct control over the policy with which you disagree. You can further bring much needed attention to your cause by busing those students to Winnetka and pretending to register them at a school where classes started nearly two weeks ago. That way, the students participating in your boycott can either miss a week at their own school or two weeks at a new school that will, in any case, not accept a student who lives outside the district.

Then, you can parade those same kids around to local business who have committed the grave crime of having the wrong civic focus. Which only makes sense if you're going to assert that public education should be privately funded. In which case, what was the point of shuttling the kids to New Trier?

The issue of funding for public schools is vital and deserves attention. However, there was clearly a better way to go about this. How about doing the symbolic registration on Aug 21 when classes started at New Trier? And instead of taking the kids into the lobbies of businesses downtown, take them to the state legislature in Springfield. Don't you have an office there Mr. Meeks? Hold a press conference with the governor; make Arnie Duncan go down there with you. Then come back and tell the media that even though the funding for CPS is neither sufficient nor equitable, it's still important that every child be in school on the first day and every day thereafter.

8.27.2008

Why We Love It

Part 1: Victory Right



Part 2: 1000 Yards of Offense



Part 3: The Hits Keep Coming

8.26.2008

The following was printed on a restaurant receipt:

"If we neglected to charge you for any item of your order we are sorry. Please inform the manager and you will receive that item for free."

8.19.2008

I've always figured that if I trained for it, the one Olympic event I could be competitive in is the Steeplechase. But, I watched the Steeplechase tonight and I think my previous assertions were foolhardy.

First, despite my natural athleticism, I'm concerned that I would end up like this guy.

Or worse...

Second, I'm not as fast as a Kenyan. Although, with the right training regimen, perhaps one of my descendants will be.

8.11.2008

I'm always slightly unnerved by the unabated jingoism that is unmasked, even encouraged, whenever the nations of the world gather to compete. A constant tab is kept of Olympic medals won by each country as if the total was in itself a judgment on the respective worth of the competing nations. (I noticed that South Korea briefly led the "medal count." Therefore South Korea is better than all other nations; or at least, was for a few hours.) Even more troubling are the lengths to which some governments will go to increase the number of medals won. The current host country, is particularly driven toward this end.

I am continually impressed with how efficiently the Chinese government administrates an overpopulated, economically progressive and geographically vast nation with authoritarianism. China is an exemplary model of order through political repression.

For all these reasons, I had intended to boycott the Olympics. However, ultimately, the allure of sports televised live in the middle of the night is too much for me to resist. Although I haven't been paying close attention to the glowing screen across the room, I find myself disappointed at the moment because coverage of swimming and gymnastics has recently concluded.

8.05.2008

Detroit Rock City Pt. Deux

Wait, I forgot this one; also Kwame related. It's not the transcript, it's the dramatic reading I find amusing. Hell Yeah!

8.03.2008

Video: I wonder if you have to turn up the volume on the Mission of Burma DVD loud enough to rival their live performance? What's that? I'm sorry, I can't hear you over the sound of how awesome Mission of Burma is.

8.01.2008

Detroit Rock City

More video. I heard about this on NPR today and I want to dedicate this video to Jimmy and Kathleen; your pain, I feel it.




Also, while browsing the related videos I found this one.
I believe the expression, "oh, snap!" was invented for this moment.

7.25.2008

Ante Up

Hi. I have a tape I want to play...

Since I'm in one of those "I have no actual content" periods, I thought I'd share with you a video I've been enjoying which I (and the readers of Gaper's Block) were hipped to by Troyal.

Muppets 4 Life.

7.16.2008

alpha charlie bravo presents:
The Backhanded Compliment of the Day

"It's ok. You're not that bad of a person."

This has been The Backhanded Compliment of the Day, an alpha charlie bravo presentation.


And now, the second Jim Henson Wilson's Meats marketing film. It's post-modern satire at its muppety finest.

7.10.2008

Last week, while listening to WBEZ I heard about the Lincoln Park Zoo's snow leopard , Yiet Yang, being euthanized. The commentator stated that the animal "...will be remembered for her feistiness and disdain for human beings."
I think that's how I want to be remembered.

And now, more muppet advertising.
This video is six minutes long, but it's worth it for the violent punchline toward the end.

7.08.2008

alpha charlie bravo presents:
The Backhanded Compliment of the Day

"You're alright, acb. I don't care what anybody says about you, you're alright."

This has been The Backhanded Compliment of the Day, an alpha charlie bravo presentation.

7.07.2008

Hi there! If you don't have the RSS feed on your blog turned on, please turn it on, so that this page can know when your blog is updated. Or not, if you really don't want to. Also, there is a new artist at the music blog.

And now, for your amusement or possibly horror:



7.04.2008

6.27.2008

I happened to notice earlier today that my iTunes catalog now has exactly 6000 songs. Although, some of those "songs" are my own podcasts and recordings and other miscellany. If I were to employ strict quality controls on the catalog I could probably purge a couple hundred files that either aren't music or simply aren't any good. Regardless, the problem I have now is the number: 6000. It's such a clean, simple number; I'm reticent to change it. As soon as I add the next album, whatever it may be, that lovely, elegant number will be gone and in its place will be an awkward 6011 or 6013. I am slightly troubled by this.

6.26.2008

Scouting Report

alpha charlie bravo
5'10" 235 lbs.
homo sapiens sapiens

Positives:
Intelligent. Compassionate. Has a variety of interests and derives pleasure from simple pursuits. Is slow to anger; has a calm demeanor and even temperament. Has an active sense of humor and a wit that can amuse others. Patient. Fundamentally kind; almost never acts with intended malice, meanness or cruelty. Generous and helpful. Unpretentious. Intellectually curious. Open minded; is able to learn from others and respects alternate points of view. Fiercely rational. Honest and fair. Introspective and self aware. Carefully considers consequences before taking action. Capable writer with a good understanding of standard english usage.

Negatives:
Diffident. Lazy. Extremely shy. Lacks the basic assertiveness to accomplish every day tasks. Does not possess natural leadership skills. Resistant to change. Fails to translate intellect into achievement. Aloof and solitary. Struggles to acquire and maintain relationships. Has been known to alienate friends and rarely makes new ones. Does not understand basic social cues. Fiscally irresponsible. Will ignore the consequences of actions even when those consequences are well understood. Has many talents, but does not excel at any particular skill. More of a dreamer than an accomplisher. Not a fully self actualized individual.

Overall:
Struggles to find his place in a world he can not save.

6.25.2008

Hey kids, check out the music blog (Let's see how long I keep this one up.)
I'm not comfortable writing about music; or talking about it, for that matter. I'm always happy to share, but I don't possess many articulated ideas about the music I listen to. I ran into this problem with the Album of the Year podcast. I'd rather present the music than talk about it. Ultimately, any artistic object has to speak for itself, but I am struck particularly dumb at the task of describing the significance of sounds. I could not be a music critic. So, there may be a dearth of writing at the music blog, but there will be mp3s to listen to and YouTube videos to view.

6.21.2008

Eats, Shoots & Leaves

After having read this article, I have resolved to use more semicolons. Just, not at the moment.

Faded From the Winter

Iron and Wine a cappella. Horribly off beat.

Lover, You Should Have Come Over

Another Jeff Buckley song. The file is too big to fit on Geocities; it's seven and a half minutes of aural torture.
The Geneva Convention doesn't apply.

6.06.2008

I would like to acknowledge Hillary Clinton and Juan Uribe for (reluctantly) ceding to my demand that they go away. Robert Mugabe, don't make me come out there...

6.03.2008

With Barack Obama poised to claim the Democratic Party's nomination for president. Let us soberly contemplate the nature of the office he seeks:
The Cult of the Presidency


And now, The Best of alpha charlie bravo presents an excerpt from an untitled post written during the election season of 2004.


July 29, 2004:
...if we hope to change our country, if we hope to change the world, (and we must for our survival now clearly depends on it) that hope for change cannot be embodied by any man or woman that has or ever will come to the podium at a party convention. Whatever progress in human history that has made our world less vulgar, less cruel; that has subdued iniquity or expanded opportunity, has only come about through the constant and difficult struggle for freedom. If we have become more civilized it is not because civilization was bestowed upon us by a sovereign power. It is because we have demanded justice and equity wherever these fundamental human values have been absent.

When the government does not speak in harmony with your voice, it is necessary to vote for change, but this is not sufficient. Government is a war against the people. Democracy is our strongest weapon in this war and our only hope. But, the struggle does not end in the voting booth, it only begins anew.

5.29.2008

I have recently concluded that there may be a hidden benefit to being in the company of a vegetarian. Suppose, heaven forbid, you and your company find yourself in a situation not entirely unlike that of the Donner Party. Having vegetarians among your group simplifies the potentially tortuous decision of whom to cannibalize first. (But only as a last resort, of course.) Finding yourselves already unable to subsist on the land, the vegetarian has no dietary options. Further, someone who refuses, on whatever grounds, to eat beef is an unlikely candidate to partake in the consumption of human flesh. In all likelihood, weak from a lack of protein, the vegetarian will collapse on his own saving you the trouble of a gruesome and evil murder.
So do not shun the vegetarian. Keep him close. He may one day be your only salvation.

5.27.2008

All right kids, it's time to get back to work.
Many of you are familiar with Goodreads. Well, recently I was notified by email that someone named John had sent me a message via Goodreads. I figured it was probably an administrator notice, but I clicked through anyway. It was from an instructor I had at NU.
It read:

"It's John [surname redacted], as you see, & I was gratified to discover your kind words about my [title redacted], here on Goodreads. I believe I remember who you are -- you stood out, really -- & I'd be happy to add you as a friend."

I didn't remember writing any book reviews on Goodreads, so I searched for the title in question to see what I had actually written. Here's what I wrote and what appears as the only review of this book on the Goodreads site:

"In his brief time as an Associate Professor at Northwestern University, John [surname redacted] had the pleasure of having me as a student in his fiction writing class."

Wow.
I'm a pompous ass.

And now, more selections from acb a cappella, in stores never.
Dust on the Window by Low (with a bad audio loop),
Lonesome Tears by Beck (with lots of overmodulation and bad harmonies--yum!),
The Kiss by Judee Sill (with unintelligible lyrics).

5.08.2008

A brief list of people who need to go away:

Hillary Clinton:


Look lady, I'm sorry your coronation got hijacked by a better candidate. But it's time to stop throwing the plumbing fixtures and move on with your life. You have, remarkably, made the substantial portion of the population that already didn't like you achieve new, previously unimagined levels of loathing. ...And take your husband with you.

Robert Mugabe:


You vile, murderous, octogenarian despot. The enmity in my heart for you is so deep and profound that a portion of my capacity to love humanity is destroyed at the mere mention of your sickeningly continued existence. DIAF.

Juan Uribe:


I am convinced that whenever your swung bat collides with a pitched ball, such an event is a result of a startling coincidence rather than an intentional act. Every day that you are permitted to don a White Sox uniform, Nellie Fox rotates 45 degrees in his hallowed grave.

4.25.2008

Scouting Report:

alpha charlie bravo
DE/LB 5'10" 220 Lbs.
De La Salle Institute

Positives:
Smart, aggressive player with excellent instincts and awareness. Has a thick frame and can add more muscle. Plays with good strength and leverage on the line. Does not get overpowered by bigger offensive tackles. Is a nuisance for opponent's running game. Seems to almost have a sixth sense for reading running plays. Does not get fooled by traps or counters. Plays well in space. Never quits on a play and will make tackles all over the field. Sure tackler who hits with authority and wraps the ball carrier. Uses hands well on the line to fend off blocks, shedding linemen to make the play.

Negatives:
Not a lean athlete. Has a tendency to put on weight. Undersized for a defensive lineman. Not an accomplished pass rusher. Lacks explosive burst off the line. Played in a "bend, don't break" style defense which did not require him to penetrate upfield. Lacks the speed to be effective in coverage as a linebacker. Gets sucked in by play action. Does not get deep enough when dropping into coverage. Will occasionally over-pursue, but does not have the speed to recover. Does not take on blocks in space, preferring to run around blockers.

Overall:
Good athlete who is liked by coaches and respected by teammates. Best suited to play situationally as a defensive end. Lacks the speed and natural pass rushing ability of other undersized ends like Elvis Dumervil, but still has room to develop. Has good upside if he can add strength and become an effective pass rusher. Could make an impact as a special teams player.

Draft Projection:
Free Agent

4.22.2008

I was saving this hunk to use in the podcast but, you know, what podcast? So, I'm just going to drop it here.

Even if Hillary Clinton wins Pennsylvania today, it is extremely unlikely that she will ever overtake Obama in the number of pledged delegates. So, why has Clinton expended so much time, effort and money simply to stay in a race she has no legitimate way of winning?

In 2000, Hillary Clinton was in a tight New York Senate race with Rudy Giuliani. Early on, Giuliani began to take a lead in the polls. But suddenly, something changed and Clinton would ultimately become the junior Senator from New York. What changed? Rudy Giuliani contracted prostate cancer and was forced to withdraw from the race.

Now, Hillary Clinton's strategy at this point in her 2008 campaign for the Democratic Presidential nomination becomes clear: Give Obama Cancer.

Isn't that, after all, what the "kitchen sink" strategy is all about? To cause sufficient damage to the opposing candidate so that he can no longer be considered a viable option for voters.

In other news, Clinton campaign staffers were seen handing out free blankets to Native Americans. [rimshot]

4.15.2008

4.14.2008

Breaking News:

My little brother, whom you may best remember as the bearded, M16 toting, Army Intel Officer shown in photos from Afghanistan like the one below, is getting married!


4.12.2008

Medicine Magazines

Another sparkling achievement for acb a cappella. Low a cappella There's clapping! Stunningly arrhythmic clapping. Also needs someone who can play an instrument.

3.25.2008

I hereby announce the long overdue invocation of the Thaksin Shinawatra Rule for:




Kwame Kilpatrick.
Please, go away.

3.23.2008

Resurrection Blues

When I first awoke this morning, I thought it was Monday. When I finally realized what day it actually is, I felt like a man who had come back from the... no, that's going to far.

Easter has always seemed like a second rate holiday to me. It's right up there with Flag Day. But, maybe it's just me. After all, without the resurrection Christianity wouldn't be a religion and Christopher Hitchens would have one less thing to complain about.
So Happy Easter, everyone.


3.22.2008

Dirt In the Ground

alpha charlie bravo presents: a product of Sunday night boredom--acb a cappella.
Tom Waits a cappella
Remixed, but not re-recorded. I feel confident in saying that it could be worse.

Morning Theft

And this is what happens when I have nothing to do at 1am on a Friday night.
Jeff Buckley a cappella
Also poor, but I'm not re-recording this one either.

3.19.2008

I Just Wasn't Made for These Times

I am a visionary. There are times when I am far ahead of the zeitgeist.
But, the rest of the world usually catches up with me and my futuristic vision of reality eventually. For example, in my reality, Arthur C. Clarke had already been dead for 3-5 years. The rest of the world, however, has only caught up with this fact in the last 24 hours. Another recent example: Michael Stipe revealed that he is gay. This has been true in my world for at least a decade.

And now, The Best of alpha charlie bravo presents a post in which I posit a premise that is basically the opposite of what I have stated above.

Also titled:
I Just Wasn't Made for These Times

3.17.2008

Holiday Inn

What? St. Patrick's Day?
Hasn't it been St. Patrick's Day since the week after St. Valentine's Day? Hasn't it been St. Valentine's Day since the week after Christmas? Hasn't it been Christmas since Thanksgiving? Hasn't it been Thanksgiving since Halloween? Hasn't it been Halloween since the 4th of July?

OK, I give up. If I promise to buy something I don't need once a week, can I just ignore all the holidays?

3.05.2008

Does Hillary Clinton's victories mean we get to play "Clap, Clap--Point, Point" for another month? I've decided that I want her on the ticket. It seemed unthinkable a few weeks ago, but now it seems like the most reasonable choice.

2.24.2008

I never really intend to, but I always seem to watch the Academy Awards. I did so tonight between watching The Simpsons and ordering a pizza. So, I thought I would give out a few awards of my own:

Drunkest Presenter: Harrison Ford

Cameron Diaz may have found herself unable to say the word cinematography, but Harrison Ford looked like he was about to regurgitate the buffet at the podium.

Lamest Presenter: Jerry Seinfeld

Every time an animated character presents an award the result is unequivocally lame. This was no exception. However, after hearing Jerry Seinfeld talk about how he poured three years of his life into "Bee Movie," watching the unfunny, uninteresting object of that grand futile effort was particularly wretched.

Presenter I Had Never Heard Of: Amy Adams

I missed her introduction to the podium, so I spent most of the time the award for Original Score was being presented trying to figure out who was at the podium. Once I did, I realized I hadn't heard of her. She's been in ten movies since 2005 and I've never seen any of them.

Worst Tattoo: Diablo Cody

Maybe there were worse tattoos, but thankfully they were not visible. According to this, Diablo Cody's tattoo has been altered recently. Who the hell wants to be called "Diablo," anyway?

Worst Award Recipient Demeanor: Joel Cohen and Ethan Cohen

I missed the award for Best Adapted Screenplay. Maybe they were excited for that one. But, by the time the award for Best Director was announced, they seemed disinterested.

2.18.2008

2.13.2008

I've been looking at some exit polling data. It seems Obama dominated in the Virginia and Maryland primaries. I'm talking about Full Spectrum Dominance. If you watched election returns you've probably heard all of this, but I just got home a couple of hours ago and I find these facts striking. More women, Latinos and voters over the age of 45 voted for Obama than Clinton in those states. Obama received 60% of the female vote in Maryland.
Clinton will need to win Ohio and Texas with a significant majority of her core demographic constituency in order to stay in the race.

2.05.2008

Robots + Zombies

Well, the Mind of the Metropolitan site is still down--because I haven't bothered to fix it yet. Nevertheless, here's a "mini" Mind of the Metropolitan podcast just in time for the opening of the polls.



Run time: 21:50
Lots of "P" popping and bad input levels. Enjoy!

Yoshimi Battles the Pink Robots

So, I figure Mitt Romney is actually an evil robot. Probably sent from the future to kill John Connor or something.

It's Black History Month, that means you're obligated to vote for Obama. You can vote for Hillary in March.

1.28.2008

In light of recent acrimony, let's take a moment to remember William J. Clinton as we once knew him: a beneficent huckster.


1.25.2008

Burn to Shine

Don't light a match in my bedroom in the morning. I might explode.
I have a homemade blanket that is big and heavy and comfy and warm. My Mom made this blanket out of ordinary yarn. Yet, when I tucked myself in last night, the static electricity contained within the blanket was so abundant that I could see sharp silver flashes as it moved and crackled. I wondered where all of this energy had come from. I imagine now that while I sleep, my blanket steals my body's electrons slowly, one by one, as night turns into day. By dawn, this theft is so complete that when I first begin to wake, I am composed entirely of hydrogen. I regain my heavier elements gradually, just as I lost them. But, I think I should stay away from open flame.

1.23.2008

Doctor Atomic



I didn't love it. But, there are astounding moments when it was everything you could want great art to be: beautiful, poignant, inspiring, frightening, illuminating, etc.

Also, if you happen to be in the Washington D.C. area in early February, you might want to take in this old gem. It purports to be the world premiere of "Wisconsin Death Trip," which I guess is technically true since this will be the first time this show will be performed under that title. But, I remember distinctly being in the original world premiere in 1996 when it was called "Still River."

1.13.2008

Below you will find the 2007 Album of the Year podcast.
Below that you will find the ordered list it is based on. But, if you're going to listen to the podcast why spoil the surprises by looking at the list?

















Run time: 54:10
There are a couple of electronic glitches in the recording, but I don't think they obscure anything.


The List:

10)The White Stripes
     Icky Thump

9) Grinderman
    Grinderman

8) Wilco
    Sky Blue Sky

7) Aesop Rock
    None Shall Pass

6) Arcade Fire
    Neon Bible

5) Little Brother
    The Getback

4) Modest Mouse
    We Were Dead Before the Ship Even Sank

3) Beirut
    The Flying Club Cup

2) Radiohead
    In Rainbows

1) Low
    Drums and Guns

1.03.2008

I Might Be Wrong

Here is why Barack Obama will win the Iowa Democratic Caucuses tonight.

The latest polling data shows Obama with a slight lead. Particularly of note is the Des Moines Register's well respected Iowa Poll which on Sunday showed a 7% (just outside the margin of error) point lead. More telling however, are two facts this poll elucidates about the voters themselves. First, among likely Democratic caucusers the issue of "electability" is a low priority. Second, many more independents have expressed an intention to caucus on the Democratic side. Independents seem to overwhelmingly favor Obama over his opponents.

Lastly, I would not entirely dismiss the potential impact of the Kucinich endorsement. If Iowans planning to caucus for Biden and Dodd also move their support toward Obama and Edwards, they could tip the scales in what is likely to be a very close election.

As far as the Republican Caucus, Huckabee seems to be holding his lead over Romney. But, I would not be surprised to see Romney pull out a narrow victory tonight. If Huckabee does not win tonight, I think he's basically done. He'll still win South Carolina, but it won't matter much.