I Might Be Wrong

Here is why Barack Obama will win the Iowa Democratic Caucuses tonight.

The latest polling data shows Obama with a slight lead. Particularly of note is the Des Moines Register's well respected Iowa Poll which on Sunday showed a 7% (just outside the margin of error) point lead. More telling however, are two facts this poll elucidates about the voters themselves. First, among likely Democratic caucusers the issue of "electability" is a low priority. Second, many more independents have expressed an intention to caucus on the Democratic side. Independents seem to overwhelmingly favor Obama over his opponents.

Lastly, I would not entirely dismiss the potential impact of the Kucinich endorsement. If Iowans planning to caucus for Biden and Dodd also move their support toward Obama and Edwards, they could tip the scales in what is likely to be a very close election.

As far as the Republican Caucus, Huckabee seems to be holding his lead over Romney. But, I would not be surprised to see Romney pull out a narrow victory tonight. If Huckabee does not win tonight, I think he's basically done. He'll still win South Carolina, but it won't matter much.